An official website of the United States government
Lifetime risk for cancer death by sex and smoking status: the lifetime risk pooling project.
Pubmed ID: 22825072
Pubmed Central ID: PMC3542389
Journal: Cancer causes & control : CCC
Publication Date: Oct. 1, 2012
Affiliation: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 680 N. Lake Shore Dr., Suite 1400, Chicago, IL 60611, USA.
MeSH Terms: Humans, Male, Female, Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Risk Factors, United States, Cohort Studies, Middle Aged, Smoking, Cause of Death, Neoplasms, Sex Distribution
Grants: R21 HL085375, N01WH22110, N01WH24152, N01WH32100-2, N01WH32105-6, N01WH32108-9, N01WH32111-13, N01WH32115, N01WH32118-32119, N01WH32122, N01WH42107-26, N01WH42129-32, N01WH44221
Authors: Lloyd-Jones DM, Ning H, Berry JD, Gawron A, Hou L
Cite As: Gawron A, Hou L, Ning H, Berry JD, Lloyd-Jones DM. Lifetime risk for cancer death by sex and smoking status: the lifetime risk pooling project. Cancer Causes Control 2012 Oct;23(10):1729-37. Epub 2012 Jul 24.
Studies:
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Understanding how sex and tobacco exposure may modify lifetime risks for cancer mortality is important for effective communication of risk in targeted public health messages. OBJECTIVE: To determine lifetime risk estimates for cancer death associated with sex and smoking status in the United States. METHODS: A pooled cohort design using ten well-defined epidemiologic cohorts including middle-aged and older individuals was used to estimate the lifetime risk for cancer death at selected index ages, with death from non-cancer causes as the competing risk, by sex and smoking status. RESULTS: There were a total of 11,317 cancer-related deaths. At age 45 years, the lifetime risk of cancer death for male smokers is 27.7 % (95 % CI 24.0-31.4 %) compared to 15.8 % (95 % CI 12.7-18.9 %) for male non-smokers. At age 45 years, the lifetime risk of cancer death for female smokers is 21.7 % (95 % CI 18.8-24.6 %) compared to 13.2 % (95 % CI 11.0-15.4 %) for female non-smokers. Remaining lifetime risk for cancer death declined with age, and men have a greater risk for cancer death compared to women. Adjustment for competing risk of death, particularly representing cardiovascular mortality, yielded a greater change in lifetime risk estimates for men and smokers compared to women and non-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: At the population level, the lifetime risk for cancer death remains significantly higher for smokers compared to non-smokers, regardless of sex. These estimates may provide clinicians with useful information for counseling individual patients and highlight the need for continued public health efforts related to smoking cessation.