Antecedent blood pressure as a predictor of cardiovascular disease.

Pubmed ID: 26260423

Journal: Journal of the American Society of Hypertension : JASH

Publication Date: Sept. 1, 2015

Affiliation: Division of Cardiology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA. Electronic address: pwwilso@emory.edu.

MeSH Terms: Humans, Male, Female, Cardiovascular Diseases, Risk Factors, Middle Aged, Longitudinal Studies, Risk Assessment, Blood Pressure, Multivariate Analysis, Systole

Authors: Wilson PW, Bonifonte A, Ayer T, Veledar E, Clark A

Cite As: Bonifonte A, Ayer T, Veledar E, Clark A, Wilson PW. Antecedent blood pressure as a predictor of cardiovascular disease. J Am Soc Hypertens 2015 Sep;9(9):690-696.e1. Epub 2015 Jul 9.

Studies:

Abstract

Elevated blood pressure (BP) is associated with greater risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and evidence suggests that prior BP levels may be at least as important as current BP in prediction models. We analyzed the determinants of CVD risk in Offspring Framingham Heart Study participants (n = 3344). The baseline Cox model included the traditional risk factors and current systolic BP to predict 20-year risk of CVD (643 events). Current systolic BP was significant, and the associated hazard ratio was 1.09 for 10 mm Hg (confidence interval [CI] 95%: 1.04-1.15). A second model used the traditional risk factors plus antecedent BP (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.19; CI 95%: 1.10-1.24). In a third model that included traditional risk factors and both current and antecedent BP, the antecedent BP was significant (HR = 1.18; CI 95%: 1.08-1.23), but the current BP was not statistically significant (HR = 1.01; CI 95%: 0.97-1.09). Antecedent BP showed a significantly stronger effect on risk of CVD than current BP.