Abstract

BACKGROUND: CKD progression among individuals with T2D is associated with poor health outcomes and high healthcare costs, which have not been fully studied. This study aimed to predict CKD progression among individuals with diabetes. METHOD: Using ACCORD trial data, a time-varying Cox model was developed to predict the risk of CKD progression among patients with CKD and T2D. CKD progression was defined as a 50 % decline, or 25 mL/min/1.73 m² decline in eGFR from baseline, doubling of the serum creatinine, or onset of ESKD. A list of candidate variables included demographic characteristics, physical exam results, laboratory results, medical history, drug use, and healthcare utilization. A stepwise algorithm was used for variable selection. Model performance was evaluated by Brier score and C-statistics. Confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a bootstrap method. Decomposition analysis was conducted to assess the predictor contribution. Generalizability was assessed on patient-level data of the Harmony Outcome trial and CRIC study. RESULTS: A total of 6982 diabetes patients with CKD were used for model development, with a median follow-up of 4 years and 3346 events. The predictors for CKD progression included female sex, age at T2D diagnosis, smoking status, SBP, DBP, HR, HbA1c, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), eGFR, UACR, retinopathy event, hospitalization. The model demonstrated good discrimination (C-statistics 0.745 [95 % CI 0.723-0.763]) and calibration (Brier Score 0.0923 [95 % CI 0.0873-0.0965]) performance in the ACCORD data. The most contributing predictors for CKD progression were eGFR, HbA1c, and SBP. The model demonstrated acceptable discrimination and calibration performance in the two external data. CONCLUSION: For high-risk patients with both diabetes and CKD, the tool as a dynamic risk prediction of CKD progression may help develop novel strategies to lower the risk of CKD progression.