Cumulative deficits and physiological indices as predictors of mortality and long life.

Pubmed ID: 18948555

Pubmed Central ID: PMC2684458

Journal: The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences

Publication Date: Oct. 1, 2008

Affiliation: Center for Population Health and Aging, Duke University Population Research Institute, Durham, NC 27708, USA. alexander.kulminski@duke.edu

MeSH Terms: Humans, Longevity, Male, Adult, Female, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Risk Factors, Middle Aged, Regression Analysis, Blood Pressure, Mortality, Hematocrit, Predictive Value of Tests, Diastole, Blood Glucose, Cholesterol, Pulse

Grants: R01 AG028259, R01 AG027019, 1R01-AG-030612, 5P01-AG-008761, 5R01-AG-027019, 5R01-AG-028259, P01 AG008761, R01 AG027019-03, P01 AG008761-19, R01 AG028259-04

Authors: Yashin AI, Arbeev KG, Ukraintseva SV, Kulminski AM, Akushevich L, Culminskaya IV, Land KC

Cite As: Kulminski AM, Ukraintseva SV, Culminskaya IV, Arbeev KG, Land KC, Akushevich L, Yashin AI. Cumulative deficits and physiological indices as predictors of mortality and long life. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 2008 Oct;63(10):1053-9.

Studies:

Abstract

We evaluated the predictive potential for long-term (24-year) survival and longevity (85+ years) of an index of cumulative deficits (DI) and six physiological indices (pulse pressure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse rate, serum cholesterol, blood glucose, and hematocrit) measured in mid- to late life (44-88 years) for participants of the 9th and 14th Framingham Heart Study examinations. For all ages combined, the DI, pulse pressure, and blood glucose are the strongest determinants of both long-term survival and longevity, contributing cumulatively to their explanation. Diastolic blood pressure and hematocrit are less significant determinants of both of these outcomes. The pulse rate is more relevant to survival, whereas serum cholesterol is more relevant to longevity. Only the DI is a significant predictor of longevity and mortality for each 5-year age group ranging from 45 to 85 years. The DI appears to be a more important determinant of long-term risks of death and longevity than are the physiological indices.