Abstract

The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) analyzes risk factors for coronary heart disease and stroke in people age 65 and older. Since CHS is designed to comprehensively study cardiovascular risk factors in an elderly population, it provides a unique opportunity to study the association of risk factors with mortality, as well as morbidity risk. With the growth of the elderly as population and life insurance market segments, the need to more precisely stratify mortality within a standard risk group of the elderly has grown as well. This exploratory analysis assesses medical factors that could be used to improve mortality risk stratification within a "standard" mortality population, using the CHS public use data set. Participants with a personal history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or major electrocardiographic abnormalities were excluded from the analysis in order to mimic a standard life insurance selection process. Then, Cox proportional hazards regression was used to study 10 medical risk factors. This model suggested that forced vital capacity >80% predicted, serum creatinine <1.5 mg/dL (133 mcmol/L), hemoglobin >11 g/dL (110 g/L), and serum albumin >3.5 mg/L (35 mmol/ L) are significantly associated (p = 0.05) with favorable mortality. C-reactive protein <1 mg/L is associated with favorable mortality at borderline significance levels (p = 0.09). On the other hand, a family history of cardiovascular disease (MI and/or stroke) and low BMI (<26 kg/m2) are associated with unfavorable mortality in the analysis. Total to HDL cholesterol ratio of <6, presence of supine systolic blood pressure < or = 140 mmHg, and the presence of minor rest electrocardiographic findings were not statistically significant factors in the multivariate model. Further assessment of the predictive value of the "significant" medical factors identified is required in insured lives.